California Fires

As I walked out of the airport in Los Angeles (LAX) last weekend (a few days before the fires), en-route to a meeting with my Investment study group, I was still thinking about my last e-mail to you regarding the Wall Street Journal article on Florida’s impending demise. Once outside L.A. (and the smog) the skies were bright royal-blue, the sun was shining brightly, the air was dry, the mountain scenery breathtaking, and the temperature was comfortably cool.

My wife commented to me that it felt like paradise as we strolled through Ojai, California (North of LA, close to Santa Barbara) and breathed in the fragrance of the abundant lilac --- and I certainly couldn’t disagree with her. My thoughts returned to South Florida and our long hot rainy summer and our condo and housing problems (as portrayed in the WSJ article,) and I thought to myself that the “Paradise Lost” of Florida might have been found in Southern California. I replied to my wife that it sure felt like paradise but the one major problem in California is that it is too dry. My lips were already in need of chap stick and I was thinking about how there wasn’t enough rainfall for the tropical fruits I like to grow---but I had to admit the brilliant hot pink and purple clusters of bougainvillea (they like it dry) were much more spectacular than at home. And then there are the vineyards and the wineries….

BUT THEN THE SANTA ANA WINDS PICKED-UP

On Saturday (10/20) in our Santa Barbara hotel, I noticed a crowd watching the local college football team playing (UCLA) in the lobby bar. I took a look at the game and saw a message crawling along the bottom of the TV screen warning that the Santa Ana winds were picking-up and that wild fires could possibly breakout due to dry conditions. No one in the crowd even flinched and I assumed that the warning was similar to the “Severe thunderstorm warnings” we always get at home and tend to ignore---no big deal.

So, Heidi and I rented bikes and went out into the beautiful, sunny, cool afternoon and rode into town. And then the winds picked-up and what looked to us like a big black rain cloud appeared on the horizon—but it wasn’t a rain cloud, it was smoke and ash. Suddenly, day turned into night and the ash began to blow in to our eyes, making riding a bicycle nearly impossible. Sidewalk cafes and streets emptied as we rode back to the hotel to spend the rest of the day indoors. And you know the rest---Southern California caught on fire.

THE BRONX WAS BURNING TOO—IN 1977

Sports fans of a certain age will recognize something eerily familiar about this piece’s title, “California is Burning.” It is actually a variation on the sad observation made by Howard Cosell during the 1977 World Series; As the camera spanned to the burning neighborhoods surrounding Yankee Stadium, Cosell declared to his audience, “Ladies and gentleman the Bronx is burning!”

Now I don’t want to start to sound like a real life Forrest Gump, but I did grow up in the Bronx, close to where the buildings were burning. In fact, I had a childhood friend in the 1960’s whose apartment’s living room opened up to centerfield and was lit-up by the stadium lights. Mickey, Roger, Whitey and Yogi looked like specs from his living room couch, but it sure was exciting to be at his house during the games. Was his old apartment building one of the ones on fire?

I feel similarly connected to the Southern California disaster as many of the investment advisors in my study group live in the areas that were affected. Furthermore, our broker dealer Linsco Private Ledger (LPL) is headquartered in San Diego and the fires temporarily displaced about 500 of our staff members.

By now you may be sensing that this e-mail is not my usual ‘tongue in cheek’ piece. I feel way too connected to the people and the suffering. As I raced down the freeway on Sunday night heading back to LAX with the fires already burning, I struggled to find some message or meaning in all of this.

THE BUSINESS MESSAGE

The business/life-planning message that came to mind is the rather apparent, “Hope for the best and plan for the worst.” But if that strikes you as obvious and not exactly profound, why do I so often (too often) find myself preparing wills, health care documents and amendments for clients who are beginning to decline or are about to enter Hospice? Do we all really think we will live healthy forever? Why do so many new clients come to me seeking asset protection planning after a major law suit has been filed against them, at which point very little can be done? Is it that unanticipated tragedies (such as fires and other catastrophes) always strike the other guy?

And on the ‘hope for the best’ front, why do so many financial planning clients first come to us for help in their late 50’s and early 60’s or later? Don’t most of you know that the prevailing probabilities are that you will have a long life and that planning should begin the day you begin earning your first dollars?

THE REAL MEANING

As far as the larger message here---sorry that’s not my job---see your spiritual advisor and write back to me with any valuable or interesting insights on the meaning of life. But getting back to my saga…. as my redeye flight began it’s descent into South Florida, the pilot announced the weather conditions in Fort Lauderdale, “Ladies and gentleman the temperature is 82 degrees (at 6 am!) the humidity is 80% (sticky!) and there are scattered rain showers throughout the area…. Just perfect!!!

Appreciate what you have here in South Florida—Paradise is found within---- I’m staying!

Until next time,

Austin A. Frye, MBA, JD, CFP®

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