LPLResearch on its recession watch update: ”…While in later stages of economic expansion, we see little threat of imminent recession.  The current expansion is the longest on record, at 126 months, but the economy has grown at a slow and steady rate.”  Read more.

Fourth quarter earnings season kicked off this week with 24 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report results. Our expectations are for a marginal increase in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) on a year-over-year basis, based on current FactSet consensus estimates (-2% year over year) and the average historical upside of roughly 3 percentage points.

TGIFryeday! And made all the more festive with a yummy celebration for our birthday girl, Robin!

2019 was the year of the U.S. consumer.

When the year started, trade tensions were heating up and recession calls had grown louder. Many investors saw the end of the business cycle coming as the expansion was on the cusp of becoming the longest on record.

…once again, working to help sweeten the holiday for some boys and girls at the Camillus House.

Delayed Gratification Pays Off:  The Longer You Wait, The More You Get 

Data from the Social Security Administration shows that 39% of women and 33% of men chose to start collecting at age 62. Just 5% of women and 7% of men waited to age 70.  Barring extenuating circumstances, being part of the majority claiming benefits early can be a very costly mistake.

Now that we have some clarity on U.S.-China trade and Brexit, in 2020 we expect drivers of stock market performance to shift more toward investing fundamentals. We also expect stocks to appreciate in line with earnings.

LPL Research sees better days ahead for bonds. 2019 was a baffling year for bonds, but we’ve seen some improvement in long-term yields. Bonds can still play a role in helping to diversify portfolios where appropriate.

U.S. economic growth has slowed in 2019. However, the economy is still growing, and we believe it will continue growing through 2020. As we highlighted in our Outlook 2020: Bringing Markets Into Focus, we’re projecting real GDP growth of 1.75% in 2020, slightly below average for this economic expansion.

It has been a rough start to the most wonderful month of them all, with the S&P 500 Index down each of the first two days of December. Don’t stop believing just yet, though.